KATHMANDU, June 12: Despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall across Nepal and the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region this year, scientists caution that disaster risks may intensify, as short bursts of extreme rain, rising temperatures, and deepening water stress could make the monsoon season more hazardous.
The “Hindu Kush–Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026”, published by ICIMOD, forecasts below-average rainfall in Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region. Experts stress that weaker rainfall does not necessarily guarantee reduced hazards.
“Even if the monsoon is weaker overall, extreme rainfall over short periods remains a major concern. Communities and agencies must closely monitor short-term forecasts and warnings,” said ICIMOD hydrologist Manish Shrestha.
According to the report, the combined effect of irregular rainfall and higher temperatures is expected to heighten both drought and flood risks within the same season. Long dry spells followed by sudden heavy downpours could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous areas.
Monsoon rainfall predicted to be less than average this year
“Overall signals suggest a drier monsoon, but that does not mean reduced risk. Short duration of extreme rainfall can still cause serious disasters,” Shrestha added.
Rising temperatures are also likely to increase heat stress and reduce water availability. Reduced snowfall before the monsoon has weakened natural water storage capacity, leaving river systems and groundwater recharge more vulnerable to rainfall variability.
Co-author Sarthak Shrestha noted that this diminished snowpack means the region enters the monsoon season with fragile water reserves.
Experts say these overlapping risks are complicating disaster planning across South Asia. “Growing monsoon uncertainty is creating coordination challenges among institutions. Governments, technical agencies, and local bodies must strengthen cooperation for preparedness,” said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, ICIMOD’s Head of Disaster Risk Reduction.
The report also warns of mounting pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems, with both rural and urban communities facing heightened vulnerability.
Ranjit Chatterjee, CEO of RECA India, explained that irregular rainfall after prolonged dry spells increases landslide risks, which can worsen migration pressures, food price inflation, energy shortages, and tourism disruptions.
Scientists emphasize the need to strengthen impact-based forecasting and early warning systems. Senior ICIMOD advisor Arun Bhakta Shrestha said drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately.
“As climate variability increases, preparing for only one type of disaster is no longer sufficient. Early warning systems, short-term forecasting, and local preparedness must be integrated to manage increasingly complex risks,” he said.
The Monsoon Outlook 2026, based on global and regional climate models, aims to support governments, disaster management agencies, and communities in preparing for the June–September monsoon season.
