The party Central Committee (CC) meeting on Friday will see heated debate on the document prepared by Dahal, who has proposed deferring the official party line of revolt and focusing on peace and constitution.
Though the proposal has already drawn opposition from party hardliners led by Senior Vice-chairman Mohan Baidya, the CC meeting is likely to endorse the document through a majority vote. [break]
At most, Baidya, who upholds the party´s official line of a revolt, will register a note of dissent and may even demand a plenum or a general convention. But holding a general convention or plenum any time soon is almost impossible given the current political situation and the homework required for such a mega event.
The change of heart on the part of the Maoist chairman is a positive development for the fraying peace process and stalled constitution-drafting, though some people still have their doubts: If the constitution drafting and peace process fail, Dahal may throw the blame on other political parties and call for a ´revolt´ or ´mass movement´. But this too looks next to impossible as the party hardliners, who now feel betrayed by Dahal´s proposal, are not likely to trust him again any time soon. "We no longer have any illusions about the chairman; he is not a man worthy of trust," says a leader from the Baidya faction.
The Maoist chairman´s ideological dilemma has held the peace process hostage. But with the Maoist party´s latest move, will the country now see the conclusion of the peace process and constitution drafting?
"Yes. But the Maoists should first begin talks with the Nepali Congress (NC)," says a Maoist leader.
Without the NC joining the government, completion of the peace process seems almost impossible, and the NC is not going to negotiate without the Maoists agreeing to serious power-sharing. And here is the tricky question: What will be the fate of the current coalition?
Dahal may use the Jhalanath Khanal-led government as a bargaining chip and say the NC should either accept him as prime minister of a consensus government, or else he (Dahal) would support Khanal continuing even after May 28.
But the Maoists may well be more flexible as the CA term extension has become an existential question for them. In an attempt to find a middle path, they may first agree to talks on the issues of the peace process and constitution drafting and negotiate the power-sharing later.
The question now is: Will the parties be able to reach agreement on peace process issues?
It is quite possible. The three-party taskforce formed in January at Hotel Radisson almost reached an agreement on the modality for PLA integration, but differences over power-sharing disrupted the whole process.
The leaders in the taskforce say the NC staked claim to the post of prime minister, arguing that the party would transfer the helm to the Maoists after the former rebels´ commitment to peace and constitution materialize.
But the Maoists had their own doubts and argued that they may fall prey to conspiracy when the CA term expires as the country would have both a prime minister and a president from the NC.
With the constitution-drafting deadline fast approaching, the political parties are likely to sit for talks in a week or two.
But the negotiations are once again likely to be hobbled by the issue of power-sharing: whether the NC or the Maoists would lead the new coalition.
Cutting this knot is difficult but not impossible. As dissolution of the CA would leave the Maoists at a disadvantage, they may agree to let the NC lead the new coalition for the next few months until the peace process gathers momentum and then pass leadership to the Maoists, who can hold the first general election.
On the constitution front, there are two major issues to settle: state restructuring and system of governance. It would be pragmatic to form a state-restructuring commission since the decision on federalism needs technical assistance. These things cannot be done by politicians alone. Similarly, the parties may agree on a directly elected prime minister as floated by the UML and a section of the NC as a middle path. But the parties can also agree on a directly elected executive president, which has been demanded by the Maoists.
Since consensus has been eluding the parties for long and complexities abound, it will be a bit early to predict the scenario ahead.
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