The catch-phrase “the third wave” has been widely used among scholars studying what is considered by some to be democratic transitions and democratization.[break] The phrase however, has come under criticism, largely by those who stress that so called democratic transitions are little more than transitions to semi-authoritarian rule, as demanded by the international realities of a post-cold war world.
In this wide-ranging and influential study, Samuel Huntington analyzes the transition of some thirty-five countries, mainly in Asia and Latin America, from nondemocratic to democratic political systems during the 1970s and 1980s. He refers to the widespread international push toward democracy during this period as the “third wave. Huntington recognizes that democratic transitions, consolidations, and collapses can all result from a variety of dynamics.He begins by identifying five changes in the world that paved the way for the latest wave of transitions to democracy: 1) the deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian governments unable to cope with military defeat and economic failure; 2) the burgeoning economies of many countries, which have raised living standards, levels of education, and urbanization, while also raising civic expectations and the ability to express them; 3) changes in religious institutions which have made them more prone to oppose governmental authoritarianism than defend the status quo; 4) the push to promote human rights and democracy by external actors such as non-governmental organizations and the European Community; and 5) the “snowballing” or demonstration effects, enhanced by new international communications, of democratization in other countries.
Next, Huntington examines the processes by which the transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes took place. He distinguishes four general types of transitions: 1) transformations (as in Spain, India, Hungary, and Brazil) where the elites in power took the lead in bringing about democracy; 2) replacements (as in East Germany, Portugal, Romania, and Argentina) where opposition groups took the lead in bringing about democracy; 3) transplacements (as in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Bolivia, and Nicaragua) where democratization occurred from joint action by government and opposition groups; and 4) interventions (as in Grenada and Panama) where democratic institutions were imposed by an outside power.
Looking to the near future, Huntington is least optimistic about the countries of Mongolia, Sudan, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Romania, Bulgaria, Nigeria, and El Salvador. He probably is wrong about Nicaragua and El Salvador. Pakistan saw an upsurge due to US’s War on Terror. He is especially pessimistic about the prospects for democracy in regions of the world that have not entered democratization, especially homegrown Marxist-Leninist regimes linked to nationalist appeals. So, if he was to comment on Nepal, he would probably be the leader of the voice of right wing to suppress even the mediocre left movement.
The strengths of this book are not in helping us chart our way into an uncertain future (there is a role for such books). Rather, it is to help us make sense of recent events by offering a solid theoretical framework for understanding democratic transitions. Huntington is a scholar of the first rank, and this study is, like many of his others, a major contribution.
However, his bias seems evident, since he qualifies the winning of the debate by specificating it to the US. He does mention what can be considered the nature of this bias when, in his fourth point on the list of changes which may be seen to have caused the third wave, he focuses on the changing foreign policies of the United States and the European Community. Huntington, from the radical perspective, may be seen as an apologist for American foreign policy, allowing justification for American global activity, that they still continue to be involved with.
If Huntington is more interested in how democracy is achieved and consolidated as opposed to its quality, he should be excused from accusations of inhumanity due to his attempt to broaden one’s understanding of democracy as a whole. The Third Wave should be read and discussed instead of criticized and ignored.
Related story
COVID-19: Second wave much deadlier than the first wave
