No final agreement, however, doesn’t mean there has been no progress in that direction. During the last two weeks, a considerable convergence has developed in the thinking of the political parties. National Unity Government, something that was unthinkable for many political parties until recently, has already gained a broader support across all parties. But the parties, and especially their top leaders, are in no mood to rush into substantive negotiation because they are still uncertain about its end result. Besides, there are also personal calculations of top leaders.
Uncertainty, around three key issues is holding Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal from taking an aggressive approach toward negotiations. A shrewd politician, Dahal understands that the national mood has rapidly swung toward formation of a national government. But who will lead such a government? Will it be him or will it go to someone else? Dahal is still very suspicious of India, and given the level of mistrust between him and New Delhi till date, he is not sure if he can have a second shot at Singha Durbar just a year after the fall of his government.
Besides, his leadership may come into question within his own party. Though UCPN (Maoist) recently decided that should it get a chance to lead the national government, Chairman Dahal will become the prime minister (PM). A lot has changed within the Maoist party since the decision was made. When the party took this decision Dr Baburam Bhattarai was at his lowest – humiliated and demoralized since he was publicly accused by Dahal as a person favored by Indian to be the next PM. The party’s internal dynamics has shifted a lot in favor of Bhattarai since then. His political line of working for “peace and constitution” was adopted by the party and Bhattarai’s supporters privately claim that he now commands majority in the politburo.
How permanent is this shift remains a question, but it still doesn’t rule out the possibility that the party might review its earlier decision that had endorsed Dahal as the man to lead the next government. Some Maoist insiders argue, in such a scenario where Bhattarai could emerge as the next PM, Chairman Dahal can give up his party’s claim to lead the national unity government and accept leadership of someone else.
Even PM Madhav Kumar Nepal doesn’t believe that his government will last to promulgate the constitution. But, then, why would he rush to leave the government when there is no sign of an agreement among the major players about the future political process.
The third and more complicated question for Dahal is the preconditions that the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML are setting out for the formation of a national unity government. The NC and UML are in no mood to transfer the leadership baton to the Maoists until the latter agrees on integration/rehabilitation of PLA, the draft of the constitution (including state restructuring), implementation of past agreements on YCL, returning the seized lands and behaving like a civilian party.
Meeting these preconditions is not going to be easy for Dahal even if he sincerely tries to. He tried that in the past, if half-heartedly, to return the seized properties and dismantle the para-military structure of the YCL but in vain. He has limits to what extent can he make compromises. Giving in too much in the negotiating table could be seen by the Maoist rank and file as compromising party’s interest just to win back power. This could further weaken Dahal’s position within his party, something he cannot afford at this juncture.
The second important player in the negotiations is NC President Girija Prasad Koirala. He also hasn’t made any effort to expedite negotiations. He seems to believe that if the stalemate gets protracted till May 28 and beyond, NC could get a chance to lead the government and he could maneuver to anoint his daughter to the post of PM. Since there isn’t any support for Sujata, within his own party and outside, Koirala sees no point in pushing hard for negotiations and for an early agreement.
The third player, UML, remains divided on the issue. Even PM Madhav Kumar Nepal doesn’t believe that his government will promulgate the constitution and hold the next general election. But, then, why would he rush to leave the government when there is no sign of an agreement among the major players about the future political process. UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal has his own dilemma—any initiative by him for a consensus has been and will be seen as an effort to unseat the government of his own party.
Despite this difficulty, Khanal, with a support of young leaders in the UML, is trying to make a unified stand of his party. If things work out, UML plans to publicly announce its readiness to go for a national unity government, provided Maoists agree to its preconditions. “Such an announcement could come through a press conference attended by Khanal, PM Nepal and senior UML leader Khadga Prasad Oli,” a leader privy to this development said.
There is also a growing consensus among senior UML and NC leaders that they will have to give Maoists their joint proposal about the national government, along with the preconditions attached with it, so that it will leave the ball in the Maoists’ court. “If we do so publicly, Maoists will be hard pressed to respond,” said an NC leader.
Given all these, we will have to wait for some more days, if not weeks, before there is an agreement among the political parties to end the stalemate and to move forward.
ameetdhakal@gmail.com
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