May 9, 2013 was declared to be the day of climate milestone after the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere exceeded 400 parts per million (ppm). This was the first time that the daily readings reached 400 ppm since two teams of scientists at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii started measuring the level of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere 55 years ago. Not just in 55 years, but scientists say that this is the highest level of CO2 since Pliocene—the geological era between three to five million years ago, when human civilization did not even exist in this planet. [break]
The two teams of scientists, one from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, have been measuring the CO2 level at Mauna Loa since 1958. NOAA wrote on its website that the daily average of May 9 was 400.03 ppm, and soon the Scripps team confirmed this data. Talking to The New York Times, Pieter P Tans, who looks after the monitoring program at NOAA, remarked: “It symbolizes that so far we have failed miserably in tackling this problem.” Environmentalists and climate activists definitely agree to this statement.
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History of CO2 levels
National Geographic News mentions on its website that the last time the concentration of the Earth’s main greenhouse gas reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the high Arctic. Seas were at least 30 feet higher—at a level that today would inundate major cities around the world. The planet was about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer, but the Earth then was in the final stage of a prolonged greenhouse epoch, and CO2 concentrations were on their way down. This time, 400 ppm is a milepost on a far more rapid uphill climb toward an uncertain climate future.
Before the industrial revolution, the average level of CO2 was about 280 ppm. In the records of these independent research institutes, the CO2 level was 315 ppm in the year 1958 when they started monitoring. It had reached 382 in 2005. Since late April the number had been stuck at around 399 ppm, the increase which set a milestone this May. The rate of increase accelerated to around 0.7 ppm per year in the late 1950s, which increased to 2.1 ppm per year during the last 10 years.
Causes
George Monbiot mentions in a piece in The Guardian newspaper that the source of the problem is the use of fossil fuels. He writes, ‘the problem is simply stated: the power of the fossil fuel companies is too great. Among those who seek and obtain high office are people characterized by a complete absence of empathy or scruples, who will take money or instructions from any corporation or billionaire who offers them, and then defend those interests against the current and future prospects of humanity.”
Moreover, the problem is with the major failure of developed nations—not excluding developing nations with booming economies—who have been reluctant towards fulfilling their duties towards a better world. While the international community hopes these nations will come up with a concrete outcome, each time a global conference is held, the results are frustrating.
The most anticipated COP 15 (Copenhagen Conference) termed ‘Hopenhagen’, failed to make countries commit to countering climate change. Copenhagen accord, which was drafted by the United States, India, Brazil, China and South Africa, was just ‘taken note of’, but not ‘adopted’, and was not passed unanimously. Although the accord recognized climate change as one of the biggest threats to the world and mentioned that action should be taken to control average temperature rise to be below 2 °C, the document was not legally binding, and thus does not commit any country to it.
Similarly, Kyoto Protocol, which had a little success in its first commitment period from 2008-2012, failed in its second commitment period, which is between 2013 and 2020. This document was amended in 2012 in order to continue the commitment of several countries, but it has not yet entered legal action. Moreover, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan have already stated that they may withdraw from their commitment, and Japan, Russia and New Zealand have not set their targets for the second period, though they had participated in the first period. Sadly, Canada withdrew the Protocol and USA has not yet rectified the protocol.
Way ahead
With these frustrating pieces of news, it is definite that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere might rise to 450 ppm very soon. At present, campaigns such as 350.org, which have been raising their voice for 350 ppm to be the upper limit of CO2 level, are being termed ‘over ambitious’. However, such activism is the most promising step in the present context, where states have been reluctant to make commitments and take action to fend off the dark future which is soon to come. Founder of 350.org, Bill McKibben states “We’re in new territory for human beings—it’s been millions of years since there’s been this much carbon in the atmosphere. The only question now is whether the relentless rise in carbon can be matched by a relentless rise in the activism necessary to stop it.”
The nonbinding document “The Future We Want” from Rio+20 Conference held in 2012 provides a thin ray of hope. But with this recent setting of the milestone at 400 ppm, there is an immediate need for governments and leaders to analyse the alarming issues and come up with a strong commitment and actions. The alarm is ringing, and the power to stop it and bring about climate justice is in human hands.
The author is an enthusiast of climate change and environmental issues
prayash.koirala@gmail.com
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