As far as the birth of a new era goes, Nepal has had a very unique one. From the rubble of the earthquake, what was denied to Nepalis for more than six decades was speedily completed within a few months of the starting of the process. But most nations go through turmoil first and get a constitution later. Nepal enjoyed relative peace over the last eight years in the lead up to the promulgation of the constitution. Trouble began after the constitution was adopted.It seems the three main political parties had already calculated that there would be some protests once the demarcation of the six provinces was publicized, but strong opposition came from a place they had not anticipated—the mid-western hills. Three people succumbed to police bullets and promptly the issue was resolved by adding another province to placate the protestors. The protests in the Tarai had been more tepid until the Tharus in the mid and far-west started venting their anger. Smaller protests were also happening all along the southern plains.
By all accounts, the major political players were confident that they would be able to weather these disturbances, which made for some surprisingly callous public utterances from politicians. The Tikapur incident allowed the political leaders to declare the unrest as a law and order problem while also widening the schism between people unhappy at the constitution and those who wanted it approved. A strong undercurrent of "us vs. them" that cut across all layers of society has yet to ebb.
With India "noting" and the UN "acknowledging" the promulgation of the constitution, Nepal might not have been all too happy but that shouldn't have dampened the celebrations, despite the death toll exceeding 40 people in the last two months. It was when India first hinted at and then put in place an "undeclared" blockade that all hell broke loose. India had indeed been slow to understand the depth of anger in the Tarai and its belated pressure tactics was openly rebuked. That must have been where the point of no return was breached.
However, the "unannounced blockade" by India has distracted us from the real issues that plague us as a nation, rather than bring it into sharp focus as we hoped (and I assume, India expected). Our Prime Minister is touring flash points after a month of tragic incidents in western Nepal. Bamdev Gautam and Prachanda are enjoying their moment of glory with cheap nationalist posturing. And Madheshi leaders are scattered in the Tarai and Kathmandu doing god knows what. So, it is time we take a deep breath and once again think hard about what happened, what is happening, and how to resolve it.
The crux of the matter is that Madheshis and Tharus are angry about two main things: 1) alienation from the constitution drafting and approval process, and 2) demarcation of federal boundaries. Other demands vary by groups and organizations, but these two are the fundamental causes that all agree on.
After Bijay Kumar Gachhedhar's party MJF-D, signatory to the 16 point agreement, left the process, not a single Madhesh-based party remained in the constitutional process. This should have given the main parties reason to pause the drafting process. Instead, the Big Three decided to shove the constitution down the CA's throat. Dissenting view by members of the Big Three were dismissed and they were asked to fall into the parties' main line.
It was clear that there wouldn't be an iota of ownership by Madheshi people for such a constitution. Populist proclamations by Bamdev and Prachanda may garner them short-term publicity and perhaps pay them vote dividends in the future, but it is certainly not what the country needs now.
Similarly, most Madheshis had come to believe that there would be two provinces in the Tarai, with Chitwan falling in Province 3 along with the capital and dividing the two provinces. They were also willing to part with Jhapa in the east and Kanchanpur in the west. When KP Oli and Krishna Sitaula insisted on Jhapa/Morang/Sunsari and Sher Bahadur Deuba, Bhim Rawal and Lekh Raj Bhatta on Akhana Sudur Paschim, it felt like betrayal of all past agreements and the spirit of Madhesh movements. The Madhesh-based parties were late to realize the depth of anger, but nevertheless came to understand the sentiments of the Madheshi/Tharu people.
As numerous and varied are the interest groups protesting in the Tarai, the Madhesh-based parties are our only legitimate representatives in the current scenario. The government should immediately create an environment for talks which includes calling back the army from the streets and into the barracks, allowing citizens to exercise their right to peaceful assembly and protest by removing restricted zones, ensuring that only proportionate force is used where incidents of violence occur, and releasing all political prisoners arrested under 'public offence' laws (those booked for the murder of security forces is another matter).
The Madhesh-based parties, for their part, should ensure that all protests are peaceful, vital services such as healthcare (including ambulances) are allowed to operate, and relief measures provided for sustenance of local life (such as shops opening for a short time each day). Both sides should immediately form a high-level dialogue team. And dialogue should start immediately with both sides willing to negotiate in good faith.
If we manage to come together in a negotiating table to resolve the issues that plague us internally, the "unofficial blockade" will automatically disappear. We will have plenty of time to assess and reflect on the geopolitics. Our political leaders and India will have to work hard to overcome the large trust deficit that has now developed. First and foremost though, both the governing and the protesting parties need to come to the table. Civil society leaders will have to play the role of mediators, the trust builders; the sooner the better.
The author has worked for various international and national organizations supporting the peace process in Nepal
Twitter: @daulatjha
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