As the unofficial blockade by India has crippled our daily lives, many people are saying we should bring fuel from China. According to news reports, China has said that if we can tell it how much fuel we need and for how many years it will even build highways to bring the fuel to us. If this is just all talk to boost its soft power in Nepal, then, there is nothing to be concerned about. But, if it is something Beijing is really mulling, then, it is in our interests to politely decline the Chinese offer.There's no room for altruism in international relations and all countries' actions are motivated by their interests. Therefore, it will be naïve to hope that China will not seek anything in return for its help. It will rather use the Marx-given opportunity to maximize its interests in Nepal.
In the short-term, China will use the opportunity to maintain its grip on our government and decide what we can, must and should do. In the last two years, due to Chinese pressure Nepal government made some stupid mistakes. Here are two examples.
In June 2014, the Nepali government under pressure from China revoked its decision to allow the final rites of Shamarpa Rinpoche—who established many monasteries and enjoyed a significant following in Nepal—to be held in Kathmandu despite the dead Lama having no connection with the Free Tibet movement. Thank God, sanity prevailed in the Nepali government and the decision was later overturned.
In September 2013, Nepal's Defense Ministry, under Chinese pressure, wrote a letter to the Nepal Army Headquarters to stop training troops of foreign armies in its High Altitude and Mountain Warfare School in Mustang citing "security concerns" as if the foreign governments/militaries still relied on the intelligence supplied by their soldiers training in Mustang. Again, sensing the Nepal Army's dissatisfaction with the decision, it was not implemented.
There are numerous examples of China exercising extraterritoriality when it comes to Chinese citizens. For example, on October 14, 2015, Nepal Police arrested two Chinese reporters filming the Military Headquarters in Kathmandu, something that would have had severe legal consequences in other countries, including China itself. But the government decided to hand the two reporters over to Chinese Embassy. Similarly, On January 9, 2012, of the three dozen Chinese citizens who vandalized Bhaktapur district court, only two were arrested and instead of trying them in our court, were handed them over to Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu.
If China can wield such influence even when we are not dependant on it for our essentials, imagine the scenario tomorrow when it will be controlling our economic lifeline. We will be forced to bend to its wills and whims.
Without a doubt, the first victims will be the Tibetans living in Nepal. It would not be surprising if for every 100 KL of oil we are asked to hand over a Tibetan living in Nepal, and for every 1000 KL, we are asked to shut down a monastery or have our monasteries turn into highly guarded prisons. We will be forced to go against the international conventions on refugees and human rights that we are signatory to. With international condemnation and probable isolation resulting from blatant violations of established global norms, we will be even more reliant on China and it will use the opportunity to change the name of Mount Everest/Sagarmatha to its Chinese name Qumolungma, an issue the Chinese have been raising on and off for many years.
In the medium and long-term, China with its highways and infrastructure development projects will project us as a likely front against India. Since such projects mean huge investment, logically, it will look for a regime that will secure its interests in Nepal. And it will instill and or support a regime favorable to its interests as it did in Myanmar until recently and which it continues to do in Zimbabwe. Our international isolation will be complete and we will become a pre-2012 Myanmar.
It is not to suggest that we stop dealing with China, but we need to be cautious. Its valid security and economic interests should be addressed but at the same time we need to maintain a healthy distance from it to not only to institutionalize democracy in the country, but also in view of the changing security dynamics of the region.
The relations between India and Nepal are at all-time low these days due to India's senseless blockade. Now, given both our countries' sensitivities and growing anti-Indianism in Nepal, any side budging an inch will be seen as surrendering to the other. But there is an easy way out, if India is really serious about protecting its interests in the region.
If both Nepal and India seriously consider their geopolitical and geostrategic realities, Bangladesh offers a way out from the mess that we find ourselves in.
India can refuse us oil to make itself appear firm in its support to Madheshis, Tharus and Hindu Kingdom, but, it should not object (like it is doing now) if we decide to get the oil from Bangladesh. Once the energy supply resumes, things will cool down and Nepal and India can resolve whatever problems there are diplomatically.
Bangladesh is trying to free itself from the growing Chinese influence by strengthening its economic ties with Japan. In 2014 alone, there have been two high-level visits between the two countries. Many agreements including cooperation on nuclear energy have been signed. In a diplomatic gesture to prove that Bangladesh values Japan more than China, it recently "cleared Japan's proposal to finance and build a seaport in Matarbari, located some 25 km from Sonadia, where Beijing had offered to construct the country's first deep water port... Such a decision would be a setback for President Xi Jinping's "One Belt One Road" initiative to build a network of ports and expressways and help expand trade, investment and influence in the region."(South China Morning Post, September 11, 2015). Bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh continue to improve as many contentious issues have been resolved.
With Bangladesh emerging as one of the regional allies for both Japan and India to counter growing Chinese influence in South Asia/the Indian Ocean, strategically it is in India's best interests to provide us with unhindered access to Bangladesh. Not only will it help India maintain its traditional sphere of influence by foiling the Chinese plans in Nepal, it will also help in implementing the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) initiative that India came up with to counter China's new Silk Road initiative.
India can still maintain that its "unofficial' blockade is in place and its allowing us access is only about following the international conventions on landlocked nations. Blocking of essential supplies and denying our rights to ports in Bangladesh is not going to help India achieve its aims of securing its borders and supporting the Madheshi, Tharu and Hindu cause in Nepal (the prolonged blockade will actually harm these causes.)
With a pro-Indian regime in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh making its preference clear, China will definitely use the opportunity to make its presence felt in Nepal and with each day of the blockade, Nepal will have a hard time resisting Chinese offer. Therefore geo-political and geo-strategic considerations make it imperative for both India and Nepal to view Bangladesh as Nepal's third neighbor.
It is the only solution that makes strategic and economic sense.
trailokyaa@yahoo.com
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