India’s envoy to Nepal, Jayant Prasad, returned home Monday after completing his two-year tenure in Kathmandu. Thought to be one of the most successful Indian ambassadors to Nepal in recent times, he will be replaced shortly by Ranjit Rae, a career diplomat in India’s foreign services.
The change is taking place at the most crucial time when Nepal is preparing for second CA election scheduled for November 19. Needless to say, given the influence of Lainchowr in defining the course of Nepali politics, it is an important appointment. This is especially true when there are concerns in India that it is losing its say in Nepal, a country which India has traditionally considered under its sphere of influence.[break]
Republica file photo
Rae was previously Indian ambassador to Vietnam. From 2002-2006, he served as joint secretary in the North Division that oversees relations with Nepal and Bhutan at India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). During the time Nepal was at the peak of Maoist movement. It is to be noted that he left the MEA soon after the Jana Andolan II, in which India had extended all-out support to the agitating political parties against the monarchy.
The 56-year-old Rae is seen as one of the key architects of the 12-point agreement signed in 2005 in New Delhi between the then seven-party Alliance and CPN (Maoist). The 2005 Agreement initiated the peace process in Nepal, brought the Maoist rebels to the mainstream and made the first CA election possible.
But much has changed. Nepal’s domestic chaos since the CA polls has added to New Delhi’s confusion. The result is that India’s Nepal policy at present is at a drift—a view now being increasingly echoed in the foreign policy circles in New Delhi. There is lack of clarity and confusion in India regarding Nepal.
The reason is that the basis under which the 2006 policies were formulated now stands on shaky grounds. In 2006, India believed that it was in its interest to bring the Maoists to the mainstream in Nepal, given its own left extremism. India played a crucial role in bringing the seven-party alliance and the Maoists together, supported the Jana Andolan II and the CA polls. While the Maoists proved to be an “unreliable partner” for India, the state-building process in Nepal lost momentum due to fierce intra and inter-party rivalry. While the popular aspirations could not be met due to the failure of the political class to bring out a constitution, the Nepali society at large now stands polarized along ethnic lines. This has brought monarchy back into the national debate.
The way New Delhi is inviting one Nepali leader after another is a clear sign of lack of clear policy towards Nepal. Although the Indian government has expressed support for the next CA polls, there is no clear position across party-lines. For instance, opposition BJP President Rajnath Singh told Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala last month in New Delhi that Nepal should reconsider its Hindu nation status. Adoption of secularism was supposed to be a foregone conclusion in Nepal with most parties already embracing it as a fundamental principle in the new constitution. When an influential leader like Singh makes such a statement, it reflects in India’s policy.
This also shows that India is disillusioned with political leadership in Nepal which squandered away the gains of people’s movement and at their failure to drive the country ahead.
Prasad’s tenure
Jayant Prasad came to Nepal on August 11, 2011 just few days before Baburam Bhattarai became the prime minister. He played a crucial role in formulating an unnatural alliance between the Madhesi parties and the Maoists. The Madhesis before that were seen to be with the ‘democratic block’ led by the NC.
Prasad also engaged, although not always successfully, with all political stakeholders in Nepal. He was well-received in Nepal for two reasons. First his father, Bimal Prasad, too served as Indian envoy to Nepal from 1991-1995, again at a key juncture in Nepal’s political history when the Jana Andolan I had brought sweeping changes. The second was that he was seen as a soft, humble and more approachable diplomat. Before him, Ambassador Rakesh Sood was severely criticised for high-handedness, arrogance and criticism of the Maoists. In contrast, Prasad played smart.
Prasad succeeded in securing BIPPA (Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement), agreement for credit line of US $250 million between Government of Nepal and Export-Import Bank of India and in pushing forward the functioning of the existing bilateral mechanisms between the two countries. Indeed, significant infrastructure projects, especially in road development, will be taken up in Nepal under the Exim bank grant. Efforts were also made at border regulation with additional check-posts being finalised.
But India’s security concern remained unaddressed. India for long has been insisting on signing of the border strip map, finalization of the extradition treaty, flying of Air Marshals, among others.
After the failure of the first CA, the most daunting task was for the political parties to agree on the next course of action, generate consensus and declare election. Although Prasad played a constructive role in facilitating the election announcement, there are doubts on poll prospects in Nepal now. In all probability, if New Delhi was convinced of the polls being held in November, Prasad could have got an extension till the end of the year.
Rae’s challenges
Rae is thus going to take over at a difficult time in Nepal. Divisions are ripe among the political parties and the country is torn over state restructuring. There is leadership crisis and uncertainty in Nepali politics. Rae will have to consistently work towards consensus building and urge for early polls, which will not be easy.
He will also face a great challenge on the border. India’s security concern has doubled since the arrest of top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist, Abdul Karim Tunda, from the porous Indo-Nepal border region (Tunda was arrested from the Banwasa-Mehendarnagar border area on August 16). The new envoy will have to engage with the RA&W, which will also beef up its operation in Nepal after the Tunda episode. It was believed that the activities of RA&W had significantly declined after Prasad went to Nepal.
Rae will also have to deal with an ambitious China entering Nepal from north. It will be a challenge to keep up Indian investments in Nepal at a time when many Indian companies are reluctant to enter Nepal. China, on the other hand, is pursuing aggressive economic engagement in Nepal with large infrastructure projects.
Most importantly, Rae will have to operate under policy vacuum. A drift in policy indicates narrow role for diplomacy. His success will be measured in terms of bringing this much-needed clarity in India’s Nepal policy.
The author is associate fellow at Observer Research Foundation, a Delhi-based think-tank, and a contributor to Republica
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