KATHMANDU, June 18: The onset of the monsoon in Nepal, which typically begins around June 13, is likely to be delayed this year, according to meteorological analysis.
Based on satellite observations and numerical weather prediction models, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has said that conditions for monsoon advancement have improved compared to last week, but are still not fully favourable. “Favourable conditions for monsoon onset have developed compared to last week, but it may still take a few more days,” said meteorologist Sanjeev Adhikari.
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Adhikari said that while monsoon-related activity has been observed over the Bay of Bengal, westerly winds continue to dominate over the easterly winds required for monsoon progression at higher altitudes. “For the monsoon to begin, easterly winds must dominate, but that condition has not yet been established,” he added.
According to him, the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is a key factor behind the delay, as it has disrupted the normal circulation of easterly winds. “Other factors may also be involved, but El Niño has affected the circulation of easterly winds,” he said.
In a recent advisory, the DHM also stated that El Niño could influence the onset of the monsoon in Nepal, with a possibility of a weaker-than-normal monsoon across South Asia this year.
The DHM noted that although the average monsoon onset date is June 13, delays have occurred in several past years. Its records show that due to El Niño conditions, monsoon onset in Nepal was recorded on June 20 in 2019, June 14 in 2023, June 21 in 1992, June 27 in 1982, and June 24 in 1983.
