The secret deal, later made public, has given birth to severe misgivings and dispute between Maoists and other parties, and between rival factions within CPN-UML itself. Three clauses out of seven have become the bone of contention; they are- clause 1 that advocates for ‘people’s (inclusive) democracy’, a phrase often equated with a one-party communist rule, clause 3 that paves way for integration of the Maoist combatants into national army on their own terms overriding previous accords and all-party-consensus in this regard and clause 6 that lays the provision of premiership by rotation. Intra and inter-party mistrust among the would-be partners has worsened so much so that the coalition seems likely to die before it is born. As a Nepali Congress (NC) led government backed by Madhav Kumar Nepal (MKN) and KP Oli of CPN-UML (certain to be elected during the 3rd round of elections) was the last thing Dahal wanted on earth, instead of trying his own luck he offered Khanal his support, albeit not without conditions. He asked to sign the controversial deal which a gratified Khanal promptly agreed.
A debate is now going on whether or not it is the beginning of an ‘unfortunate and unwarranted’ polarization between communist and democratic forces. The truth is that as majority of the parties or individual LA members who voted for or supported this coalition are leftists while those who voted against or decided to remain in opposition are mostly democratic parties, more or less this is a case of polarization. Nevertheless, this is not an alliance between radical communists because no such alliance is possible in the first place given the adverse state of geopolitics, international situation and power balance within the country. This is not an ideological coalition either as no ideological overtone or rhetoric (for example, total change, great leap forward, people’s education etc) figure in their common programs or policies, if any. In its entirety CPN-UML, the second largest party in the coalition, is a left-of-the-center party despite its communist nomenclature and history.
Besides, there are several other reasons why the non-left forces need not be unduly panicky. First, an unwilling but compelled Dahal to adopt ‘people’s revolt’- the party’s recently passed political line- should have sighed with relief, albeit in private, as the participation in government will dilute and deviate the party from the disastrous course. Since a party cannot launch revolt in cities and countryside while remaining in government in the capital, this will at least mainstream the party even if not transform.
And anyway, this coalition-- a product of dramatic twists and turns and behind-closed-door-deals, rather than the outcome of a solid partnership based on common goals--is unlikely to live long. Khanal’s accession to office at the cost of his own party leader MKN’s premiership has already intensified the ongoing feud within CPN-UML. Dahal-Khanal pact will also deepen Dahal’s rift with Baburam Bhattarai within UCPN-Maoist. MJF, the third largest party likely to join the coalition, is all set to split vertically soon after its leader Upendra Yadav joins the government. All this will only make Khanal’s tenure a short-lived one.
Dahal’s possible interference in government functioning and his probable assertion over Khanal will create inter and intra-party friction between the two giants of the coalition.
Dahal’s likely use of state power, albeit indirect, against Baburam Bhattarai, who is not happy with Dahal’s support to Khanal, will also add to Khanal’s troubles. Since Khanal doesn’t have a strong cadre/supporter base within the party like Oli or even Bam Dev Gautam have and since he also lacks the balancing skills and pragmatism that MKN has, he won’t be able to mobilize the party rank and file in his defense that already suffers from power-obsessed and self-centered politicking, corruption and comfy/luxurious life-styles and in fights the way bourgeois party (such as NC) rank and file suffers.
The Khanal-led coalition – a product of dramatic twists and turns and behind-closed-door-deals, rather than the outcome of a solid partnership based on common goals–is unlikely to live long.
Sooner than later, Dahal himself will try to become prime minister as he is not the type to be content with proxy use of power. But Khanal may not necessarily agree to step down as the infamous deal is not clear on the next date of handover of premiership. On the other hand, dogmatic and powerful Maoist leader Mohan Vaidya and his followers will lose patience as the limitations of a coalition government won’t allow it to take radical measures they want to introduce. As prime minister of the country, Khanal will have to pay dearly should the Maoists dare any extreme or foolish measure such as digging trenches to fight war with India or interfere in military matters as they have done before. From day one, the scuffles of bahagbanda (power-sharing) - especially over the portfolio of Home ministry- has deteriorated to the extent that Khanal hasn’t been able to form his full cabinet for weeks; with more government nominations in the future, the cracks may turn into earthquakes.
Last but not least, Khanal can hardly conclude the uphill task of constitution writing and peace building as he lacks flexibility and a relationship of trust with opposition parties, which is required to do the job. Khanal‘s term in the office will, therefore, see few achievements and plenty of turmoil. A transitory and lost phase of the uncertain and long drawn political transition, it will go down in history as a failed alternate tried amid the inability of non-Maoist parties to hold their coalition intact on one side, and that of the Maoists to form their own government on the other.
Maoists successfully cashed the foolishness of their opponents that included King Birendra and Gyanendra and NC leaders, especially the late GP Koirala; they also successfully capitalized the inherent shortcomings of sociopolitical order of yore. That phase is over now and those tricks cannot be re-enacted anymore. Their electoral success was an outcome of, among other things, people’s desire for peace. People’s mandate to them is to build peace, not to experiment an outdated ideology. Therefore, democratic forces like NC better mobilize people for peace rather than reciprocate the ill-formed ‘polarization’. NC, now slid to the 2nd position from being the No. 1 in national polity for a long time, has done enough damage to the nation and to itself by its poor organizational capabilities, poor performances both while in government and opposition, in fights and finally by its suicidal embracement and pampering of the Maoists to serve the personal and political ambitions of late GP Koirala.
A party that can never put its house in order certainly cannot effectively lead a much larger political front. Therefore, it is better go among the people, mobilize them for peace building, in the mean time try to improve its own capabilities and of course, wait for Khanal’s shaky coalition to die its quick natural death.
jeevan1952@hotmail.com
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