Nepal is suffering from the unofficial blockade imposed by India. Newspaper reports say India wants Nepal to accommodate Madheshis and Tharus in the new constitution through fast track amendments. It is interesting that India has gone that far for Madheshis and Tharus. But its claim rings hollow.If it were really concerned about well-being of these communities residing in Nepal-India border areas, it would have shown sensitivity while constructing Koshi, Gandaki and Karnali (Ghaghra) barrages which have inundated a number of Tharu and Madheshi villages.
Some argue India's hidden interest is to separate Madhesh from Pahad, and ensure majority of India-loyal-Madheshi leaders in the Parliament so as to construct river-linking projects, significant portion of which falls in Nepal. This is a poor argument. Loyalty cannot be bought just because of cultural similarities, unless the benefits are also shared. Others argue that India has been dragged into the ethnic politics, actually designed by western powers.
In fact, most of our problems owe to incapability of our leaders. When 18 hill and Himalayan districts were devastated by April earthquake, international community, including India, pledged over US $4.5 billion for reconstruction. But our leaders did not work for reconstruction. Instead they decided to fast-track constitution making. CA members could have reached out to their constituencies explaining what is in the new constitution. They did not. Two former prime ministers who visited Delhi should have either rejected the Indian demand or made efforts to include it in the constitution. This would have reduced misunderstanding with India. They did neither. Constitution was promulgated while 18 districts of Tarai were still ablaze.
Despite being rich in natural resources, Nepal remains one of the poorest countries. But despite high and steady economic growth of the past decades there are still over 300 million Indians under the poverty line. With booming economic growth, India also needs more energy.
Nepal holds the key to energy requirement of India. There are possibilities for vast amount of renewable and clean hydro-electricity along with irrigation and flood control opportunities from Himalayan Rivers. A number of projects—including Mahakali Pancheswar (6,600 MW), Karnali Chisapani (11,600 MW), Upper Karnali (900 MW), Koshi High Dam (over 3,000 MW), Arun III (900 MW) and Budhi Gandaki (1,100 MW)—have been proved cost-effective. But these projects have potentials as well as risks.
Koshi High Dam Project, for example, can generate over 3,000 MW of electricity and irrigate over two million hectors of land in Nepal and India. It would submerge 190 square km of fertile land of 82 VDCs of nine hill districts of Nepal. Similarly, the dam would inundate existing foot-trail network that connects all Pahadi districts with Terai. This project would have a profound impact on existing social and economic order of Koshi hill area, due to large coverage and long gestation. Groups like Koshi Sarokar Samaj and Limbuwan Rastriya Mukti Morcha have asked the joint team of India and Nepal to stop preparation of its detailed project report.
Indian policymakers have always negotiated mega projects with Nepal during politically difficult times so as to have upper hand. The 1965 water resource deal with King Mahendra and the 1991 Tanakpur deal with Girija Koirala are examples. Similarly, the 2014 Upper Karnali and Arun III deals with Sushil Koirala will provide monopoly to two Indian private companies.
Development is the main agenda of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His visit to Nepal last year underlined the need to execute mega water resources projects for employment generation and income. He told the Constituent Assembly: "Exploitation of Nepal's water resources can change the face of Nepal". Accordingly, a power trade agreement was signed between two countries and a soft credit line of US$ 1 billion was pledged for infrastructure development and energy projects as identified by Government of Nepal.
India knows more than anybody else that the British monopoly with distorted pricing under the colonial rule resulted in impoverishment and resentment in India. It should stop dealing with Nepal with old British mindset. It should rather have a system that allows prices to be fixed fairly and benefits shared equally. I propose the following.
At least one percent of the investment should be set aside for knowledge development and social mobilization. This money will be spent on three areas. First, defining and estimating the products to be developed. For example, to what extent rainwater could be harvested and stored in large reservoirs in the mountains of Nepal to generate renewable energy, year-round irrigation of millions of hectares of land and vital lives and properties saved from recurring floods? Similarly, while building major projects, environmental augmentation measures are required to mitigate adverse impact of climate change.
Second, big reservoirs inundate farm land, displace people and increase food insecurity in the mountain region. This issue cannot be addressed with one-time-compensation, as planners would like, because land is not only an asset but also an industry that provides income, employment and social esteem to farm households.
Third, modalities need to be developed, with government guarantee, for capital generation through bonds and shares from small and medium investors of both countries. Since capital accumulation and dividend distribution can be done in local currency, such methods would ensure wide distribution of benefits and enable broad-based development in both countries. If hydro projects are undertaken for the benefit of both the countries, it will solve half of the problems Nepal has with India.
The author is Chairman of Rural Self-Reliance Development Center (RSDC), Kathmandu
durga.paudyal2@gmail.com
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