After the declaration of bird flu emergency in Bhaktapur district, even non-meat eaters are on tenterhooks. At the current rate of its spread in the poultry (there have been around 60 cases in the last three months), it might only be a matter of time before the dreaded transmission to human beings. The latest bird flu outbreaks have already claimed 44 lives in neighboring China, with one clear-cut case of human-to-human transmission in which both the people died.
Human-to-human transmission is extremely rare because the virus takes time to adapt to human body and mutate into a strain which can be transmitted through people-to-people contact. But as the first reported case of such transmission in China indicates, it is a distinct possibility. For a country as ill-prepared for infectious diseases as Nepal, the danger is that even if there has been any transmission of bird flu to humans, the authorities might not find out before it is too late. Hundreds of locals of Bhaktapur are reportedly down with flu. Without close medical supervision, there is no way to differentiate if this is the run-of-the-mill flu witnessed during the change of season, or the more ominous bird flu. [break]
Thankfully, the sale and consumption of chicken products have gone down significantly. Initially, even though the government had imposed a ban on trading in chicken products, the ban could not be enforced. Since bird flu has been a regular phenomenon in Nepal for the last few years, people had not paid much attention to its dangers at the start of the latest round of nationwide outbreaks.
But most meat eaters seem to have realized the real scale of the problem this time and refrained from consuming poultry products. As the demand has gone down, so has the supply. But where do we go from here? How long can the legions of chicken lovers hold themselves back? How long do they need to? How will the government handle the growing pressure from poultry entrepreneurs to let up on its aggressive anti-bird flu campaign?
It is extremely hard to forecast the trajectory of the latest bird flu outbreak in Nepal. As more and more cases are reported outside Kathmandu Valley (the latest at two farms in Hetauda), the threat of a nationwide pandemic remains imminent. There are credible suggestions from veterinarians that the new strain of bird flu spotted in Nepal might be the result of the use of unauthorized bird flu vaccines for poultry. The use of such vaccines are not just ineffective, but dangerous, as hundreds of poultry farmers are finding out. Hopefully, they have learned their lesson and are more judicious in their vaccine use in the future.
The government for its part must provide adequate compensations to farmers whose chicken are being culled in order to encourage them to promptly report symptoms of bird flu in their poultry. This will be one investment worth making. Bird flu is not to be taken lightly. This growing menace must be halted in its tracks, through every means possible.
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