Worrying signs

The Tarai standoff

After a long time the agitating Madheshi parties and government representatives seemed close to mutually acceptable amendments of new constitution. The government delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Kamal Thapa, had for the first time agreed to adjustments in the seven-province federal map, which was the central demand of the Madheshis. The two sides had agreed to resume dialogue in the near future. But the understanding fell through in under 24 hours when, on Monday morning, police opened fire at protestors in Birjung, killing one Indian national and injuring many others. The details of the incident are yet unclear. But it is hard to understand the logic of forcefully removing protestors from Birjung border and thereby provoking a violent reprisal a day after agreeing to resolve all outstanding issues through dialogue. This makes us doubt if the Oli government was ever serious about meaningful solutions. Otherwise, the government must at once come clean on Monday's incident.The killing of its national, whom it deems 'innocent', has clearly angered India, which may now find an excuse to impose an official blockade. But more than India, right now we are more concerned about the actions of our own government. In the three weeks since its formation, the Oli government could have done a lot more to take the agitating parties into confidence. There was no point in sitting down for talks if the government team was not ready to discuss the central agenda of redrawing province boundaries. Also, the government has been saying that it wants a 'package deal' with the Madheshi parties, which will include its previous commitment to drawing electoral constituencies on population basis and proportional representation of all marginalized communities at state organs. The reluctance to implement these past promises without an acknowledgement of the Madheshi parties of these concessions as 'helpful' is understandable. If the government had enshrined these measures in new constitution, the Madheshi parties could simply have shifted their goalposts.

But the developments on Monday have highlighted the dangers of prolonging this seemingly interminable game of cat and mouse. Prime Minister KP Oli, in particular, needs to exercise restraint and not make statements that will provoke further violence in Tarai. He should be trying to help mend the frayed ties with the Madheshis parties instead of adding fuel to the fire. It is also up to him to try to take the Indian political leadership into confidence that his government is not in any way inimical to Indian interests in Nepal. An amicable solution to the current standoff in Tarai is still possible. Nepalis have suffered enough. It is time for Oli to prove that he is more than a rabble-rouser and can, if need be, also play an able statesman. How he handles the troubles in Tarai and the Indian blockade will be the single biggest determinant of his legacy as prime minister.

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