As per the agreement, the parties were to complete the PLA integration in a month, and then zero in on issues concerning the constitution to be promulgated by May 28 when the fourth extended term of the Constituent Assembly (CA) expires.[break]
But four months on, the peace process has hit a roadblock and outstanding constitutional issues remain unresolved.
And as if all this was not enough, the chiefs of the three major parties -- Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepali Congress (NC) President Sushil Koirala and UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal -- have been holding a flurry of meetings of late, but consensus eludes them still.
What has gone wrong with the implementation of the November 1 peace deal and led to stagnation in the peace process?
“Insincerity on the part of the Maoists is to blame for the current sorry state of affairs,” argues UML leader Pradip Gyawali, a key player in his party.
The opposition leaders say there are two factors behind the current disarray.
First, they allege the Maoists attempted to play with elements in the Nepal Army (NA) to secure top positions in the proposed directorate, creating suspicion among NA top brass and the political parties.
“The way the Maoists have been playing with the Nepal Army to fulfill their vested interests became clear after NA chief Chhatraman Singh Gurung briefed Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai about PLA integration. The briefing went against the spirit of the seven-point deal,” says an NC leader who did not want to be named.
Secondly, the Maoists sought positions above the rank of major, possibly up to brigadier, in the NA directorate, something that goes against the November 1 political settlement, and has apparently been a major roadblock to the integration process. “The Maoists reneged on their promise in the seven-point deal, hence the deadlock,” says an UML leader.
But Maoist leader Shakti Basnet, who is close to Dahal, argues that the integration process is not purely a technical matter, and should be construed as part of the political process and settled accordingly.
Leaders from the NC and UML doubt that the peace process will move ahead even if the Maoists get senior positions in the NA.
“After all, the Maoists are beset by a fear-psychosis lest they lose the upper hand in constitution drafting once the combatants are formally dissolved,” argues Gyawali.
Quite evidently, Maoist Chairman Dahal has demanded a system of direct election of an executive president in the constitution as a precondition for the integration process to move ahead.
Maoist insiders say they are not willing to compromise on direct election of the executive head for two reasons: first, the party has to give a feel to the people about system change to justify the decade-long insurgency; secondly, Dahal wants to realize his ambition of becoming the first executive president and effect some “sweeping” changes in the country.
There seems to be yet another factor in the current stagnation: Dahal´s anxiety about his own political future, and his desperation to keep the party unity intact.
At a recent meeting, Dahal reportedly told other leaders that the way the NC is opposed to direct election of the executive president is a “conspiracy not to let him become prime minister before or after the general election.”
Dahal also appears in an awkward situation for pledging to party hardliners to remove Prime Mininister Baburam Bhattarai from government leadership. And that is why he is talking about a national consensus government, despite the fact that the current government is led by a leader of his own party.
“The chairman seeks two advantages in joining forces with the hardliners. First, he will cut Bhattarai down to size and become the prime ministerial candidate, and second he will keep the party unity intact,” says a leader close to Bhattarai.
But the strategy failed after the NC declined to lead the government until the Maoist-led government concluded the peace process. “This, along with other factors, have left the chairman in a deep dilemma and the peace process in stagnation,” says the leader, adding that the ongoing series of three-party meetings is not likely to lead to any solution.
It is not that there are no behind-the-scene negations, but the leaders argue that the future of peace depends on whether Dahal is ready to take some political risks. With the constitution drafting deadline approaching, the parties are hard-pressed. “The future course of the peace process will definitely depend on what moves Dahal makes in the immediate future,” says Gyawali.
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