DAMAK, Feb 26: In Jhapa Constituency-5, the battle lines are clearly drawn—and much of the focus has shifted to squatter settlements. CPN-UML Chair KP Sharma Oli and Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Senior Leader Balen Shah are both contesting from this constituency with the larger narrative of leading the country as the next prime minister.
Jhapa-5 is Oli’s home turf. Shah, meanwhile, has entered the fray from Kathmandu, directly challenging the former prime minister on his own ground. As in past elections, parties and candidates have zeroed in on squatter settlements, long regarded as a decisive electoral bloc.
The issues of landless people, squatters and unmanaged settlers have dominated election agendas here for decades but remain unresolved. The matter has been a recurring campaign theme since the 1991 polls. With squatter votes expected to play a determining role once again, both leaders are making calculated efforts to win their trust.
According to the Jhapa Land Commission, 52,041 squatter families across the district have filed written applications demanding land ownership certificates. In Jhapa-5 alone, around 12,000 such families reside. Within Damak Municipality, which falls under this constituency, 6,332 families—including 560 landless Dalits, 2,477 landless squatters and 3,285 unmanaged settlers—have applied for land certificates.
Oli has adopted a defensive tone when addressing the squatter issue, while Shah has taken a more assertive approach. Targeting his rival, Oli remarked that rumors were circulating about bulldozers being deployed to demolish settlements. He has also argued that the 2008 election demonstrated how voting for “new faces” can lead to wasted votes.
“Since 2008, not even a twig of development has taken place, nor has there been contact with the people. Nothing moves, nothing changes,” Oli has said. “The taste of the ‘new’ is so bitter and sour that it does not go away. Even banks do not print currency without collateral. If you vote for someone now, where will you find them later? Have you even seen their house?”
Leaders parroting old promises to woo squatter votes
Oli has repeatedly brought up Shah’s bulldozer actions in squatter settlements during his tenure as mayor of Kathmandu.
Shah, however, is distributing a commitment letter pledging that, if his leadership forms the government, a commission will be established within 100 days and the squatter problem resolved within 1,000 days. He maintains that his efforts in Kathmandu were aimed at managing—not demolishing—settlements and that the then government failed to cooperate. Oli, for his part, has presented details of the initiatives he claims to have undertaken to address the issue.
In Gauradaha Municipality of Jhapa-5, 2,564 families—including 331 landless Dalits, 1,120 landless squatters and 1,213 unmanaged settlers—have applied for land certificates. In Kamal Rural Municipality, 499 families (78 landless Dalits, 2,190 landless squatters and 231 unmanaged settlers) have submitted applications. In Gaurigunj Rural Municipality, 2,021 families (235 landless Dalits, 1,146 landless squatters and 736 unmanaged settlers) have applied.
Altogether, an estimated 36,000 votes in Jhapa-5 are believed to come from squatter communities, most of whom have yet to receive land ownership certificates. Their collective choice could prove decisive.
After concerns surfaced among Jhapa’s squatters regarding Shah’s bulldozer actions in Kathmandu, he sought to clarify that he intended to systematize settlements, not evict residents, and attributed obstacles to the previous government’s lack of cooperation.
Voter distribution by municipality
According to the Election Commission (EC), Jhapa-5 has 163,377 registered voters—about 9,000 more than in the previous election. Those turning 18 by March 4 will also be eligible to vote, potentially increasing the total further.
In the last election, voter turnout stood at 64 percent. Of the votes cast, 5,117 (5.17 percent) were invalid. If a similar 5 percent invalidation rate occurs this time, roughly 106,000 votes could be valid for counting.
Jhapa-5 comprises four local units: Damak and Gauradaha municipalities, along with Kamal and Gaurigunj rural municipalities.
Damak alone has 65,997 voters. If turnout reaches 65 percent, about 42,000 votes may be cast, with approximately 40,000 likely to be valid after deducting invalid ballots.
Gauradaha’s eight wards account for 41,475 voters. With a 65 percent turnout, around 26,958 votes may be cast, leaving roughly 25,000 valid votes.
Kamal Rural Municipality, with 40,786 voters, could see around 25,000 valid votes. Gaurigunj’s four wards have 15,119 voters. At 65 percent turnout, about 9,800 votes may be cast, of which nearly 9,000 could be valid. Overall, Jhapa-5 could see around 100,000 votes cast this time.
Proportional representation votes
In the previous election, the CPN-UML secured 35,872 proportional representation (PR) votes in Jhapa-5. In the first-past-the-post category, Oli won with 52,319 votes—suggesting he added significant personal influence to the party’s organizational base.
The RSP secured 18,205 PR votes from this constituency. Even if Shah were to double that tally through personal appeal, it would reach roughly 36,000 votes.
In PR voting, the Nepali Congress garnered around 16,000 votes, the then CPN (Maoist Centre) about 8,000 and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party 7,000. The Janamat Party received 1,800 votes, while the Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch secured 1,400. No other party crossed the 1,000-vote mark.
