After the declaration of new constitution, Nepal stands at a crossroad, where it has to choose between retaining its independence and vanishing from world map.At all critical times in Nepal's history, India has tried to establish its control over it through overt and covert interventionist actions. In 2015, India grabbed the opportunity to corner Nepal at the time it was adopting a new constitution, which had created serious cleavages in Nepali polity.
The Madhesh (Tarai) has, as a result, been in turmoil, and already 50-odd lives have been lost. India backed Madheshi forces and resorted to an undeclared economic blockade, halting fuel and cooking gas supplies into Nepal. People's Dashain celebrations had to be severely curtailed. But as of October end, the economic blockade, instead of being eased, is being further tightened.
That is how it looks on the surface. But in reality Nepal again faces a difficult choice: between accepting the old Indian sphere of influence or asserting its existence as an independent country. Under the parliamentary dispensation since 1990 the leadership belonging to various parties increasingly submitted to India's desires. Unequal treaties like Mahakali, BIPPA, Upper Karnali and Arun III resulted from this submission.
Nepal conceded all these with a heavy heart to India and its companies. The problem is not India grabbing multi-billion-dollar projects and making profit. Indian companies get the license and sit on these projects for eternity, without bothering to build them. Nepalis are thus made to believe that India does not intend to develop any of the hydro projects. For her real interest are not hydro projects but to control Nepal's vast sources of water, a commodity getting scarce by the day in the water-hungry Ganga Basin.
Nepal continues to remain a monopoly market for India-manufactured goods but none of our governments—revolutionary or reformist, communist or non-communist—tried to diversify trade and reduce heavy imbalance of payment with India. Compared to Panchayat days, Nepal's dependence on India has increased manifold.
The current fuel crisis laid bare a simple truth: our leadership is responsible for keeping Nepal perpetually under India's thumb. Otherwise why depend on oil on India which has no oil resources of its own?
Thankfully, things are beginning to change, as the recent oil agreement with China suggests. The elected Nepali leadership for a long time did not have the guts to formally request oil from China. It remained indifferent to people's plight during Dashain.
Nepali leadership is to be blamed not for what they did but for what they failed to do. Nepal no longer has to think in terms of India only. Few decades ago Nepal could not build any of the big hydro projects with its own money and manpower. But today, it is possible because Nepal is awash with money. But for the want of right investment opportunities people are squandering it. Sophisticated technology and technicians are available all over the world, which can be tapped.
Likewise, public transportation can be built based on locally produced energy or solar power. The trolley bus system is the most suited technology for Nepal. But it was unceremoniously dumped in the name of liberal economy and in the process of blind acceptance of Washington-prescribed medicine to improve Nepal's economy. Our government is oblivious of new opportunities, such as running more Safa tempos and starting electric train all over the country. The electric car, which can already be seen on Nepali streets, is another option that can make us self-reliant.
Air service, which can be an important tool to boost economic linkages with the outside world, is still in a rudimentary stage with only one international airport in the whole of Nepal. And even that airport is rated among the worst in the region.
We have the manpower to change things. The Nepali diaspora has developed into a big force, and can be tapped, not only to safeguard Nepali independence but also for its long-term economic development.
Nepal faces a big challenge. But many of her problems can be solved with the right political leadership. What we have instead are power-hungry and money-minded leaders. They suffer from the misconception that Nepalis cannot look beyond India. Again, India can be blamed to an extent, but most of our problems are self-made.
The result is that Nepal is in the process of vanishing from the map of independent nations as the piecemeal selling of Nepal to India continues unabated. The latest instance of this was the proposal to hand over the Kathmandu- Nijgadh fast-track to India by subverting due process.
We need leaders who have the guts, ideas, vision and dedication to national cause, leaders like Pritihivi Narayan Shah, Bahadur Shah, Bhakti Thapa, Amar Singh Thapa and other unsung heroes. Thanks to their valiant efforts, Nepal was independent even when the whole of Indian sub-continent was under the control of the British. We don't have to look far for inspiration.
Shrestha is a veteran political commentator and Dhungel is a former Secretary with the Government of Nepal
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