Since the first Constituent Assembly was formed in 2008, the political leaders have not been serious about drafting the constitution. But, all of a sudden, they became hyperactive in drafting the constitution at a time the entire nation was in the grip of devastating earthquakes. There was little in terms of sympathy for the families of 9,000 people who lost their life during the earthquakes and 22,000 people who were injured. A lot of money was mobilized for reconstruction of over half-a-million houses that were destroyed during the earthquakes, but nothing substantial has been done since.For unknown reasons, the draft constitution was hurriedly prepared to give continuity to traditional supremacy of certain hill elite groups in the power structure of Nepal. Interests of the majority of the Nepali population, including Madheshis and Tharus, were overlooked in citizenship and other issues. But what annoyed them most was clubbing together of Tarai districts with the hills while carving boundaries of the seven proposed states. This was done out of mistrust against the people who together constitute nearly three-fourths of Tarai population.
In fact, the demarcation of state boundaries has been needlessly complicated. The nature has gifted us three ecological belts—the Tarai region, the Hills and the Himalayan region. Accordingly, there could be one federal state in each of the ecological belts. The demand of Madheshis and Tharus for one state in Terai is based on this principle. But in order to give more space to the aspirations of local people in the administrative set-ups, there could be six states in total, two in each of the ecological belts. But provisions could also be made for up to 15 states —five in each ecological belts. Such a model could be more appealing if based on horizontal rather than vertical lines.
Unfortunately, there was no sensitivity to the demands of the Madheshis and Tharus for one or two states in the Tarai in the draft constitution. So the United Democratic Madhesh Front and Tharuhat Struggle Committee were forced to call for an indefinite strike in Tarai beginning August 8. Following the Tikapur incident in Kailali district in which eight policemen were killed, even the army was deployed in various parts of Tarai to suppress the unrest. But instead of getting the situation under control, such an action has only increased the conflagration in Tarai.
In the course of the strike, the entire Tarai region has been completely paralyzed. So far 29 people, including one toddler and ten security personnel, have been killed in protests. Besides, 112 protestors have been injured. Also, 43 government and 20 private houses, apart from 24 government and 172 private vehicles have been vandalized. Thousands of trucks loaded with goods are still stranded on border points with India.
Since 65 percent of Nepal's trade is with India alone, the restrictions on the movement of vehicles travelling to Nepal have seriously affected Nepal's third-country trade. In this chaos, some inhabitants on Indian side of the border who have blood relations with Madheshis and Tharus have threatened to block the movement of trucks from the Indian side to Nepal.
Because the businesses, market places and trading houses are all closed in Tarai, prices of essential goods have escalated beyond imagination. Basic goods as petroleum products, LP gas, grocery and even food items are unavailable. Worst affected are hospitals as there is lack of certain essential medicines and even oxygen cylinders.
The nation has suffered a direct economic loss of US $1 billion due to the Tarai strike. Industrial, business and tourism sectors incur a loss of two billion rupees each day. Most of the industrial units have to pay salaries to employees even when they are closed. So the Nepalis who have per capita income of US $730 are likely to become poorer still. The annual rate of economic growth which is already as low as three percent might be further affected.
Economic activities in all the major urban centers in the Tarai have been affected. All 1,500 industries in Biratnagar, 1,000 industries in Sunsari and 2,000 industries in Birgunj are closed. Each day, Rs. 600 million worth of business is lost in Morang. In Sunsari, each day of strike costs Rs. 500 million; whereas in Nawalparasi there is a daily loss of Rs 150 million. But indirect cost of Tarai strike is several times more. Revenue collection from custom offices, including those at Kakarbhitta, Biratnagar, Janakpur, Birgunj and Bhairahawa points has fallen drastically, if not stopped altogether.
Significantly, the rainfall this year in Tarai was less than expected. In such a situation, the long strike in Tarai has proven catastrophic as the farmers find it difficult to engage in paddy plantation. This could create a huge shortage of food-grains in the region, if the situation does not improve soon.
One of the major sources of income in Tarai is foreign remittance. But the number of those looking to go to foreign countries for employment has fallen drastically. The plight of the poor and all those who survive on daily wages is the worst. Mostly, rickshaw pullers, masons, carpenters and agricultural workers find it hard to survive without gainful employment.
Understanding the seriousness of the situation, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged all stakeholders in the constitutional process to desist from using force. But there is no serious effort made on the part of the government to initiate dialogue with the agitating groups. If the stalemate continues, the situation could get from bad to worse and take the form of a movement which will be very difficult to control.
It would be illogical to test the strength of the Madheshis and Tharus on the basis of their presence in Constituent Assembly as people at the grassroots are more conscious than ever about the centuries-old discrimination practiced on them. Better give the people 15 states and save the nation. Egoistic postures in Kathmandu, on the other hand, will spell doom for the country. Let us not be penny wise and pound foolish.
The author is an economist
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