Born to fail?

Thanks to the ´political delay´ and the masses ´tired of the deadlock´, the American pundits of the Failed States Index (FSI) 2011 couldn´t help but put Nepal almost at the bottom. Nepal stood at 27th position—just two steps up from 25th position last year—in the Foreign Policy magazine´s annual report. In the latest index, Nepal stands two steps below Sri Lanka (29th) and two steps above Bangladesh (25th).



Other neighbors aren´t faring any better either, with Bhutan standing at an impressive 50th, Burma at 18th, Pakistan at 12th and Afghanistan at 7th—still better than the worst: Sudan (3rd), Chad (2nd) and Somalia (1st). Though criticized for its social inequalities, corruption and internal conflicts, India doesn´t figure on the list of 60.

The index´s ranking is based on demographic pressures, refugees and internally displaced people, group grievance, human flight, uneven development, economic decline, ´de-legitimization of the state´, public services, human rights, security apparatus, factionalized elites and external intervention. That Nepal hasn´t improved much in recent years means that all such issues remain worse, and that they continue to degenerate.



´HELL´



Does that really mean Nepal is a failed state, a gone case? While that index itself may be debatable, we don’t seem to have made much headway—really. "Arule bhannu ra aafu bannu ekai?" We haven´t really transformed ourselves, and things haven´t really changed for the better. The CA failed last year. And it failed again this year. As the leaders falter—repeatedly—the peace process continues to flounder.



And the worst fear is this: Nepal´s downward spiral may continue.



As journalist Elizabeth Dickinson notes on Nepal in ´Postcards from Hell´, in Foreign Policy´s FSI report, "… it (the Constituent Assembly or CA) hasn´t succeeded, and many Nepalese, such as the protesters seen on May 26 this year, are growing tired of the political deadlock."




True, as she notes, the "ruling-party figures and former Maoist rebels, incorporated into the government in a peace deal, have yet to find a way to work together." She goes on to write that "the political delay is having material consequences."



The report warns that Nepal´s status of "the poorest country in South Asia" is unlikely to change until the peace process is implemented and security restored. "There are signs that the Maoists may be losing patience—and thinking about going back to the trenches to fight for more", Dickinson writes of the recent rumbles within the Maoist party that has clearly adverse-negatively impacted the peace process.


VIEW FROM D C



The Americans´ FSI 2011 is clearly a telescopic view from Washington D C—and not, unfortunately, from the summit of Everest. Yet it´s a grim reminder of where Nepal stands today in the current global order, and where it should be going; of what´s happening here and what needs to be happening.



Indices like: A state committed to human rights; a state committed to ending human flights; a state free from internal or external refugees; a state marching rapidly on the path of even development and economic growth; a state that´s safe and live-able; also represent the collective Nepali dream.



Several Nepali politicos have articulated and shared that kind of dream—such as turning Nepal into Switzerland type of dream—on many occasions. If they are serious, why can´t the chieftains of Nepali politics including Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Jhalanath Khanal, Sushil Koirala make genuine efforts to translate their rhetoric into reality? Once that happens, things can improve visibly.



Back to rumble in the jungle. It´s been a exactly a month after the top leaders of the Big Three and the Madhesi Front parties inked yet-another pointed deal and extended the term of the CA by three months. With two months remaining, the progress isn´t that encouraging.


RUMBLE IN KATHMANDU



The sub-committee formed to resolve the differences regarding the new constitution met a couple of times, did some homework and discussed some ideas. Yet the multi-party Maoist Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) hasn´t made much progress except publicizing a three-month work calendar.



The AISC has already missed a deadline; it failed to come up with the ´integration modality´. And it´s likely to miss more deadlines, thanks to the differences within the biggest political party, the UCPN (Maoist). At this critical juncture, which offers a rare opportunity to complete the peace process, the Maoist party appears deeply divided: Between ‘Prachanda’, Baburam Bhattarai and Mohan Baidya ‘Kiran’ factions.



The differences are unlikely to be resolved before the party holds its general convention. That´s a rare congregation, which, among other things, elects its powerful leadership body. That´s a gathering which hasn´t happened in the past two decades. So the biggest question before Nepal today is this: The Maoist general convention first? Or the peace process first?



If the infighting within the Maoist party disrupts Nepal´s peace process, if that holds the process hostage, Nepal´s overall development and the process of democratization, its quest for the end of the crisis of governance, will suffer further blows. In the worst case scenario, that could potentially lead to the breakdown of the peace process.



THE BOTTOMLINE



In any case, Nepal´s deadlock-prone political process looks excruciatingly slow. As has been the case, that tends to slow everything down, offering the right kind of indices to the FSI researchers to continue juggling Nepal up and down the Index. Nepalis don´t want to see Nepal stuck in the ´Some States Were Born to Fail´ category. In a ´global village´, nobody wants failed states.



In Nepal, the onus is on the Big Four.



The writer is a BBC Nepali Service´s Correspondent



nepal.surendra@gmail.com

Related story

Heaviest baby born in Dhaulagiri Hospital