So the big question is this: Will that dawn deal herald a new, promising and a bright future for the seemingly never-ending political process? What guarantee is there that the parties will succeed in completing the remaining tasks of the peace process—integration and rehabilitation of the ex-Maoist combatants within three months? That they will amicably settle all differences related to constitution-making? Will they really finish the tasks they couldn´t in the last five years?
The deal clearly lacks the specifics. As it lacks a clear roadmap, few seem convinced that they will. All around, there are lingering doubts. [Hours after the deal that paved the way for the three-month extension of the CA (whose two-year-term expired last year, on May 28, 2010)sleep-deprived top officials gathered at the Nepal Army parade ground to celebrate Republic Day (achievements)!] In media vox-populi people sounded outraged and deeply skeptical unconvinced that the politicos would live up to their words and finish it all within three months.
ROADMAP TO PEACE?
And yet the dawn deal offers some positives. First, it offers Nepal´s key political players yet another opportunity to continue dialogues and agree on the detailed roadmap to peace—something that´s missing. Building on their recent "achievements", the Maoist and non-Maoist parties can now decide how many of the 19,000 ex-combatants—5,000 or 7,000?—are to be integrated in the new national security force, and how many are to be reintegrated back into society. In the next few days, they will need to make more detailed deals, finalizing the integration norms, modalities, and sorting out the juggernaut of the Maoist arms and weapons.
Right from the start of the peace process, the Maoists have been pitching for a new National Security Policy and democratization of the Nepali Army (NA). Now, the Madhesi Front has joined the bandwagon demanding "proportionate" Madhesi entry into the NA. In the days to come, aided by security experts, the Big Three plus the Madhesi Front and the Special Committee on Maoist Army Integration will need to brain-storm over that policy.
The dawn dream sounds fantastic, but it will be a Herculean task for key political players—the Big Three and the Madhesi Front—to get everyone onboard and complete the tasks of peace- and constitution-making by August 28.
Based on the outcomes, the projects of reforming the NA, integrating and rehabilitating the ex-Maoist fighters can move forward. The sooner the parties work out agreeable and workable details, the sooner the stalled peace process can be completed.
NEW CONSTITUTION?
In recent months, the parties have earned accolades for burying a lot of contentions related to the constitution-making. However, there are still issues requiring intense negotiations between the major parties—specifically the Maoist and the non-Maoist parties, two sides harboring vertically opposite philosophies. The issues of future legislature, mode of governance and a host of others will surely require intense brainstorming. Only constructive dialogues—not bickering will get them closer to consensus.
Equally seriously, the parties will need to revisit the sensitive issue of Restructuring of the State. While the Maoist party wants Nepal to be divided into 14 federal states—some of them with ethnic names,Nepali Congress has pitched for seven. As the recent wave of struggles by several ethnicity-based-federalism-seekers continues, new groups of Khas-Chhetri and Brahmans have unleashed fresh wave of bandas demanding protection of their "indigenous rights" and an end to "ethnicity-based" federalism.
That issue will surely take the forefront in the days to come. So the Big Three plus the Madhesi Front will have no choice but to deal with ethnicity-centered issues head-on. In a country where nearly a hundred different ethnic groups have coexisted in harmony for centuries, failure to quell simmering ethnic tensions will surely have far-reaching implications. For, they will have a potential to tear the country apart. So, before it´s too late, the big parties must use their head and act wisely.
And they have to act on time. In dealing with the issue of ethnicity, they must tread cautiously. The re-emergence of Madhesi Front should be seen as a positive development as far as maintaining equilibrium in the current balance of power is concerned. While the Front is expected to wage a do-or-die battle to protect "Madhesis´ rights", the myriad of other ethnic groups should not be left out in the oncoming battle/s for rights. Another plus: The dynamics—in a melting pot called Nepal—will likely compel the Maoist party to shed its ultra-ethnic colors.
Even then, the tasks of forming a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to deal with the "crimes" committed during the decade (1996-2006) long conflict, and of forming the Commission on Disappeared People will remain. Before the CA, the To-Do List is quite long. If they are to finish it all in three months, the parties must engage in intense negotiations through and through without wasting a single second, a single minute.
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT?
May 29´s morning dream looks fantastic, but the five-point deal lacks specifics; its misinterpretations to suite one´s interests started right away. For instance, it doesn´t specifically say when PM Khanal should resign. One likely scenario is this: Once the parties finalize the road-map for peace and constitution, or to put it in Khanal´s words, "once the alternative to my government is readied", Khanal can be asked to step down.
And when he does step down, the race for the new PM will begin. Last year, it took the hung—and ever dynamic parliament seven months to elect a new premier—and that was Khanal.This time around, when Khanal steps down, how long could it possibly take to elect his substitute is the worst Nepali fear. As demanded by the Nepali Congress, if the Maoist party disarms itself, if it disassociates itself from its military wing, things will be much easier. That will boost the Nepali peace confidence.
The real testing times have only begun.
Writer is a BBC Correspondent
nepal.surendra@gmail.com
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