The census report launched recently by CBS is the most authentic source of data regarding the population of Nepal. Population data is of interest not only to researchers and academicians, but also to political organizations and pressure groups, because the size of the population reflects their political or social areas of influence. In this sense we may consider the report of CBS as an indicative voter list.
After the launch of the census by CBS, many organizations have expressed a deep annoyance at the alleged disappearance of numbers of their concerned groups. Janajati Mahasangh has expressed their dismay by burning the census report. Christian organizations have also expressed disappointment that about 265,000 Christians amounting to one percent of the population are missing from the report. [break]
The above two demonstrations by two organizations are examples of the current trend of disbelief seen across Nepal. Nowadays, no one seems to believe anyone else. Students have no trust in teachers, teachers have no trust in university, university in Education Minister, Ministers in Prime Minister, Prime Minister in President, and President in political parties. Most society member are living with a great lack of trust: customers do not believe in shopkeepers and think they always cheat them, tenants have no trust in house owners, commuters in traffic police, voters in local leaders, and tax payers in government. Mistrust has now become a social norm.
The exercise of taking a census is very difficult to perform. It needs a lot of experts, experienced field workers, a big budget, and extensive management skills. With a hundred years of experience of conducting such censuses, CBS is sufficiently experienced in this process, and is currently using sophisticated methods of enumeration and data processing. For the 2011 census, as written in the report itself, the government has used more than 280 million Rupees, mostly from donations, and has utilized more than 41,000 individuals as human resources. The whole process including concepts, questionnaire, training, enumeration and processing took about five years. This is why it is impossible for any other research institute to conduct a similar project and challenge the findings of CBS. This time, as CBS has reported, it has used the most inclusive human resources including Janajatis, Dalits and females for field enumeration and supervising. This has made the census data an important national asset that can be used in national development planning and socioeconomic researches.
CENSUS 2011
To discuss the authenticity of the census findings further, first of all we have no way of disproving it. Second, in many cases the accusing organizations should first cross examine related population factors before forming their conclusions about a particular result. For example, there were only 41 identified Janajatis in 2001 census that constituted about 31 percent of the population. In the 2011 census, 50 more Janajati groups were identified. This increment was due to numerous scholarly contributions from concerned experts, including the 2002 Janajati Report by the scholars and members of Janajati Utthan Pratisthan, many of whom are now in the central committee of a new Janajati-focused political party. This report, published by the Institute of Integrated Development Studies (IIDS) was presented to the planning commission aiming to provide guidelines for the 10th National Plan. Such initiatives, combined with continuous meetings/dialogues with concerned agencies, have made positive impacts on this census report.
According to the above mentioned report, 35 Janajati groups were excluded from the 1991 census, and 16 were excluded from 2001 census. In the latest census, all previously identified groups were included with the addition of some small new groups such as Dolpo with a population of 4101 and Lhopa with a population of 2624, which were recorded in census for the first time. The report has listed even some small enclaves of caste/ethnic groups such as Nurang with a total count of 278, Raute numbering 618, and Kusunda numbering only 273. These inclusions reflect good intentions and improvement on the part of the Census Bureau.
However, it is also true some of the information on this report needs to be understood with discretion on the readers’ part. For example, every table of the census report needs to be read with a ‘discount coupon’ used by CBS while counting its citizens. Discount has become a fashion in many commercial items these days. This time, the government has also made such a discount of ‘up to 7%’ for citizens who were absent from the country during the last six months. The report has excluded about 1.4 million people, tagging them ‘absentee population’. This discount comes into play in understanding the decline of Janajati population in the latest census report. Although the absentee population are not yet categorized by ethnicity, if we analyze the records of foreign migrants at the Department of Immigration, it is clear that a large number of Janajati population are staying abroad. For example, children and families of many British Gurkhas got the privilege of residency in the UK in the past five years, and most of these Gurkhas are Janajatis. When these calculations are applied to the census report, we find that the decline in Janajati population is not so surprising. The census is the only source of valuable decennial information about our population; it has been achieved through utilization of vast resources and is an output of great efforts that we should be proud of.
The author is Associate Professor of Statistics in Tribhuvan University vrsatyal@gmail.com
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