This time last year the then Prime Minister Jhalanath Khanal was being hounded by the Oli faction in his own party. Khanal, the faction alleged, had fared dismally in taking the peace and constitution agenda forward; if anything, he was hindering progress on the two fronts. Following four months of intense pressure both from the party and outside, Khanal resigned, making way for Baburam Bhattarai. While Khanal’s six-and-a-half month tenure was marked by lack of progress on crucial peace and constitution issues, Bhattarai made a great start by at once setting the peace process ball rolling by expediting the process of recategorization of cantoned ex-combatants. Progress since had been slow, until last Tuesday when the cantonments were brought under government control, all but ensuring that the peace process would be completed in a not too distant future.
Thus 2068 which started with growing wrangling over the status of a ‘lame duck’ government ended with substantial progress in the political process underway post 2006. What was particularly disappointing about 2068, like 2067, was again lack of progress on settlement of vital constitution issues. It seemed that before the Maoists agreed to complete the peace process first, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML were in no mood to begin meaningful discussions on constitution. The Maoists were dogged by a problem of their own: The growing rift between the establishment and Baidya factions. It appeared as if no matter what Bhattarai-led government did, be it concerning return of seized properties or trying to working out a credible integration plan with Nepal Army, the Baidya faction had to oppose it. All the while pressure was building on Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who had further alienated the hardline faction by backing Bhattarai’s course of peace and constitution.
In truth, Dahal had run out of options. Supporting Baidya by abandoning the current political process would have significantly eaten into his hard-earned credibility, both with the domestic and foreign actors. By choosing to go with Bhattarai, Dahal has undoubtedly made a bold decision. Thus, besides its significance in the eventual completion of the peace process, 2068 will be best remembered for Dahal’s U-turn on the future course of Maoist party.
But if 2068 was important, 2069 will be among the most decisive moments in the country’s history. Vibes coming from the main political actors indicate that they are ready to enter negotiations on constitution in a mood of compromise. The Madhesi parties have all but dropped their One Madhesh demand; NC and UML appear more willing to accommodate the question of identity in restructuring; the Maoists for their part seem ready to hammer out compromise solutions on government form and judiciary. We are very hopeful that a substantial document can still come out on May 27—provided the parties engage in meaningful negotiations in an atmosphere of trust and compromise as was witnessed at the start of the peace process.
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